Throughout human history, water has been central to survival, civilization, and development. Rivers, lakes, and freshwater sources have defined borders, fueled economies, and served as the foundation for human settlements. However, in the 21st century, water is no longer seen merely as a common good essential to life; it has become a strategic resource shaping geopolitical disputes—much like oil, rare minerals, or natural gas.
The scarcity of freshwater is a growing reality, exacerbated by climate change, increased agricultural and industrial demand, rapid urbanization, and poor water resource management. According to the United Nations, approximately 2.2 billion people lack access to safe drinking water, and global demand for freshwater is expected to rise by 55% by 2050 (UNESCO, 2019).
In this context, water is now understood not only as a human right (UN resolution of 2010) but also as a resource of power, whose scarcity or abundance can determine relationships of dependence, cooperation, or conflict. Just as states fought for control over oil reserves in the 20th century, similar dynamics are now observed around aquifers, river basins, and transboundary rivers. Water governance has thus become a central issue in international security and contemporary diplomacy.
Hydropolitics in Practice
The term hydropolitics has been increasingly used to describe political interactions among different actors over water. According to Sneddon and Fox (2012) in their study on the Mekong Basin, water functions as a “medium” connecting biophysical processes to geopolitical and economic dynamics, creating zones of tension at local, regional, and global scales. This perspective is echoed in the analyses of Basumatary (2021), who identifies water as one of the main security threats of the 21st century, particularly in contexts where rivers are shared by countries with historical rivalries and power asymmetries.
Beyond direct disputes over water control, other factors complicate the issue: the construction of mega hydroelectric projects, diversions of natural watercourses, environmental degradation, pollution, and changes in the hydrological cycle. These factors generate social impacts (such as forced displacements), ecological consequences (ecosystem collapse), and political tensions (interstate and regional conflicts).
Regions in Tension: Hydropolitics and Water Conflicts
As water resources become increasingly scarce, competition for their control transcends national borders and takes on a clear geopolitical dimension. Rivers crossing multiple countries and shared underground aquifers become friction points where strategic, energy, agricultural, and population interests overlap.
In this section, we analyze four emblematic cases: the Mekong River, the Nile, the Indus-Brahmaputra rivers, and the Guarani Aquifer.
1. Mekong: Development vs. Sustainability in Southeast Asia
The Mekong River flows through six countries: China, Myanmar, Laos, Thailand, Cambodia, and Vietnam. It is vital for about 60 million people, particularly for agricultural and fishing activities. The construction of mega-dams, especially by China and Laos, has created regional tensions. These dams alter the river’s natural flow, impact fisheries, and affect downstream communities, as demonstrated by Sneddon and Fox (2012) in their analysis of the “Mekong as a region” framed geopolitically, economically, and biophysically.
The Mekong Subregional Initiative, sponsored by the Asian Development Bank (ADB), presents the river as an axis of economic integration. However, this narrative often ignores local ecological and social impacts. The Mekong case shows how water is simultaneously a driver of development and a source of exclusion and conflict.
2. Nile: The Longstanding Dispute Among Egypt, Sudan, and Ethiopia
The Nile, the primary water source for Egypt and Sudan, originates in Ethiopia and flows over 6,600 km to the Mediterranean Sea. Historically, Egypt has exerted control over the river based on colonial treaties (1929 and 1959). However, the construction of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), begun in 2011, marked a turning point.
Egypt considers the GERD an [existential threat to its water security. Ethiopia, on the other hand, defends its right to development and the use of its natural resources. The absence of an effective multilateral agreement and each country’s dependence on the Nile make this basin one of the most sensitive in the world, prone to escalating tensions.
3. Indus and Brahmaputra: China-India Rivalry and the Waters of the Himalayas
In South Asia, water geopolitics is deeply influenced by rivalries among China, India, and Bangladesh. The Brahmaputra River originates in Tibet (where it is called the Yarlung Tsangpo), flows through India, and reaches Bangladesh. The Indus River crosses India and Pakistan and is regulated by the Indus Waters Treaty (1960), mediated by the World Bank.
China’s construction of dams on the upper Brahmaputra concerns India, which fears political manipulation of water flows. The lack of binding agreements with China and its unilateral stance exacerbate these perceptions. As Basumatary (2021) highlights, water in Asia is used as a tool of geostrategic influence, posing a potential threat to human, ecological, and interstate security.
4. Guarani Aquifer: Cooperation and Prevention in the Southern Cone
The Guarani Aquifer is one of the world’s largest underground freshwater reserves, spanning Brazil, Paraguay, Uruguay, and Argentina. Unlike the previous cases, this example showcases a cooperative approach. The Guarani Aquifer Project, developed with support from the Organization of American States (OAS) and the World Bank, was based on the idea of integrated and sustainable management.
Although the aquifer has not yet been a major source of disputes, concerns remain about its vulnerability to private interests, agricultural expansion, and future water scarcity. Regional cooperation here represents a valuable opportunity to demonstrate that, even amid potential tensions, shared governance is possible.
These cases show that water can be both a source of conflict and cooperation, depending on institutional frameworks, power balances among states, and internal and external pressures.
Global Water Governance
Geopolitical disputes over water are not destined for inevitable conflict. International institutions, multilateral agreements, and diplomatic efforts can transform potential tensions into opportunities for cooperation. However, significant challenges remain for effective global water governance, especially when competing political, economic, and social interests are at play.
In this section, we analyze the current institutional landscape of water governance, discussing the limitations of existing international treaties, the role of international organizations, and the challenges of achieving sustainable and equitable water diplomacy.
Legal Instruments: Between Cooperation and National Sovereignty
International rivers and transboundary aquifers are theoretically governed by international norms. Two key instruments stand out:
- UN Convention on the Law of Non-Navigational Uses of International Watercourses (1997): Establishes principles such as equitable and reasonable use, the duty to avoid significant harm, and the need for cooperation among states. However, this convention suffers from limited adoption and the absence of key powers like China and Turkey.
- Helsinki Rules (1966): Developed by the International Law Association, these provide guiding principles for the use of international watercourses, emphasizing cooperation and equitable sharing of water resources.
Limited adoption and the lack of enforceability weaken these instruments. States often prioritize national sovereignty over strategic resources like water, undermining international governance efforts.
The Role of International Organizations: Facilitation or Interference?
Organizations such as the World Bank, the United Nations (UN), and regional bodies like ASEAN (Southeast Asia) and the African Union play varied roles in water governance. These institutions typically promote:
- Conflict mediation, as seen in the historic Indus Waters Treaty (India-Pakistan).
- Funding for sustainable and cooperative projects, exemplified by the Guarani Aquifer Project.
- Technical support and knowledge transfer on integrated water resource management.
However, these organizations also face criticism for sometimes promoting overly economic approaches that prioritize large-scale projects (dams and hydroelectric plants) without sufficiently considering social and environmental impacts (Sneddon and Fox, 2012).
Challenges of Water Diplomacy: Power Asymmetry and Unilateralism
One of the greatest challenges in global water governance is asymmetry among states. Upstream countries—such as China on the Mekong and Brahmaputra, Ethiopia on the Nile, or Turkey on the Tigris-Euphrates—hold significant power over downstream nations, which often have limited capacity to influence decisions.
Japungsar Basumatary (2021) argues that political and economic asymmetry between India and China creates permanent vulnerabilities and tensions, with the potential for violent conflicts increasing when water management intersects with historical territorial disputes. Such asymmetry is a critical obstacle to equitable and transparent negotiations over shared resources.
Moreover, the unilateral stance of some countries, which undertake large projects without effective consultation with affected neighbors, threatens regional stability and complicates diplomatic solutions.
Climate Change: An Additional Pressure
Climate change intensifies water competition by altering rainfall patterns, melting glaciers, and disrupting hydrological cycles. Extreme events like droughts and floods become more frequent, exacerbating existing tensions and creating new humanitarian and economic crises.
This situation demands a more adaptive and resilient approach to water governance, with greater international and regional coordination to address growing climate uncertainty.
Pathways and Proposals for Effective and Sustainable Water Governance
Given the tensions and challenges outlined, it is essential to propose pathways for strengthening water governance. Sustainable management of international water resources requires a combination of new institutional arrangements, adaptive diplomacy, and integrated, cooperative approaches. Below, we explore practical proposals to transform water from a potential source of conflict into a catalyst for peace and sustainable development.
1. Water Diplomacy and Regional Institutional Arrangements
The creation of regional organizations dedicated to water management has been a promising solution. The Mekong River Commission and the Nile Basin Initiative exemplify how regional frameworks can prevent and mediate conflicts, creating platforms for dialogue and technical cooperation.
The proposal is to strengthen these institutions, ensuring decision-making autonomy and sufficient financial resources to overcome power asymmetries. Investing in multilateral platforms can prevent disputes and promote equitable and sustainable distribution of shared water resources.
2. Integrated Water Resources Management (IWRM)
The Integrated Water Resources Management (IWRM) approach recognizes the interdependence of water, energy, agriculture, and ecosystems. Projects based on IWRM, such as the Guarani Aquifer initiative, demonstrate that economic development can coexist with ecological sustainability and water security for populations.
Integrated governance must involve all stakeholders—governments, local communities, the private sector, and NGOs—promoting broad public consultations and participatory decision-making mechanisms.
3. Strengthening International Water Law
To overcome the limitations of the current legal framework, it is necessary to expand the adoption and enforceability of existing treaties. One strategy could be to encourage bilateral and multilateral negotiations that adopt, as a minimum baseline, the principles established by the 1997 UN Convention, emphasizing equitable use, the duty to avoid significant harm, and cooperation.
Additionally, the creation of effective international dispute-resolution mechanisms, such as specialized arbitration tribunals, could ensure treaty compliance and resolve conflicts fairly and impartially.
4. Scientific and Technological Cooperation
Science and technology play a central role in sustainable water management. Integrated monitoring systems, data sharing, and information exchange among countries can build trust and prevent disputes. An example is the hydrological data-sharing agreement between China and India (2002–2008) on the Brahmaputra River, which, despite its limitations, points to possible future pathways.
Technological cooperation should also promote rational and efficient water use, with joint investments in desalination, water recycling, smart agriculture, and adaptive management to climate change.
5. Preventive Diplomacy and Confidence-Building
Investing in preventive diplomacy is essential to avoid conflict escalation. Confidence-building among countries sharing water resources can be achieved through:
- Academic and cultural exchanges;
- Joint exercises for water-related emergencies (floods, droughts);
- Shared economic projects that generate mutual benefits and positive interdependence.
Such initiatives reduce threat perceptions and favor more cooperative, less competitive approaches to water issues.
Conclusion
Water, like oil and other strategic resources, plays a central role in contemporary geopolitics. However, unlike other resources, water is vital and irreplaceable for human and ecological life. Therefore, the only viable solution for its management in the 21st century lies in robust international cooperation, mediated by effective multilateral institutions and grounded in the recognition of water as a global common good.
Current tensions and disputes over water are not inevitable: with proper global governance mechanisms, institutional strengthening, preventive diplomacy, and scientific and technological cooperation, water can become a strategic resource for peace and sustainable development.
As Kofi Annan, former UN Secretary-General, stated, “Competition for water can divide nations, but water cooperation can unite the world around a shared future.”
References
Basumatary, J. (2021). Geopolitics of Water and Security Implications: Understanding of India-China Transboundary Water Dispute. Chennai Centre for China Studies.
Sneddon, C.; Fox, C. (2012). Water, Geopolitics, and Economic Development in the Conceptualization of a Region. Eurasian Geography and Economics.
UNESCO (2019). World Water Development Report.
